← New Forest (all cycles) · 6 May 2021 cohort
New Forest 2021
Local elections held 6 May 2021.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share that would be needed to be guaranteed that seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the gap as points under par — the editorial indictment. Above-par results are just majority mandates and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 10 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 10 seats had been allocated to those vote totals in proportion (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented in this council, negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative and Unionist Party | 27,750 | 54.9% | 8 | 80.0% | 6 | 60.0% | +2 |
| Liberal Democrats | 11,440 | 22.6% | 2 | 20.0% | 2 | 20.0% | 0 |
| Green Party | 5,173 | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 10.0% | -1 |
| Labour Party | 4,584 | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 10.0% | -1 |
| Independent | 1,157 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Alliance for Democracy and Freedom | 261 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 177 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 50,542 | 100.0% | 10 | 100.0% | 10 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Lymington & Boldre · 1 seat · won at 42.1% · +7.9 pts below quota
- Dibden & Hythe · 1 seat · won at 46.4% · +3.6 pts below quota
- Totton South & Marchwood · 1 seat · won at 48.4% · +1.6 pts below quota
- Lyndhurst & Fordingbridge · 1 seat · won at 55.4% · above quota
- Ringwood · 1 seat · won at 57.2% · above quota
- Brockenhurst · 1 seat · won at 58.3% · above quota
- South Waterside · 1 seat · won at 59.4% · above quota
- Totton North & Netley Marsh · 1 seat · won at 63.4% · above quota
- New Milton · 1 seat · won at 66.2% · above quota
- New Milton North Milford & Hordle · 1 seat · won at 69.4% · above quota
Race results
Lymington & Boldre · single-seat
Marginal winner 42.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +7.9 pts below quota Valid ballots 5,496
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunning B.F. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 2,313 | 42.1% | Elected |
| 2 | Davies J. | Liberal Democrats | 1,241 | 22.6% | |
| 3 | England J. | Independent | 1,157 | 21.1% | |
| 4 | Jolly V.C. | Green Party | 453 | 8.2% | |
| 5 | Weber J. | Labour Party | 332 | 6.0% |
Dibden & Hythe · single-seat
Marginal winner 46.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +3.6 pts below quota Valid ballots 5,425
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wade M.S. | Liberal Democrats | 2,515 | 46.4% | Elected |
| 2 | Harrison C. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 2,088 | 38.5% | |
| 3 | Herbert K.A. | Labour Party | 281 | 5.2% | |
| 4 | Boddington D. | Green Party | 280 | 5.2% | |
| 5 | Jones T. | Alliance for Democracy and Freedom | 261 | 4.8% |
Totton South & Marchwood · single-seat
Marginal winner 48.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +1.6 pts below quota Valid ballots 4,756
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harrison D. | Liberal Democrats | 2,303 | 48.4% | Elected |
| 2 | Young R.M. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 1,892 | 39.8% | |
| 3 | Field H.M. | Labour Party | 312 | 6.6% | |
| 4 | O'Driscoll C.S. | Green Party | 249 | 5.2% |
Lyndhurst & Fordingbridge · single-seat
Marginal winner 55.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −5.4 pts Valid ballots 5,461
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heron E.J. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 3,027 | 55.4% | Elected |
| 2 | Brand H.C. | Liberal Democrats | 1,063 | 19.5% | |
| 3 | Richards J.E. | Green Party | 928 | 17.0% | |
| 4 | Swyer J.N. | Labour Party | 443 | 8.1% |
Ringwood · single-seat
Marginal winner 57.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −7.2 pts Valid ballots 4,266
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thierry M.H. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 2,439 | 57.2% | Elected |
| 2 | Kelleher P. | Labour Party | 772 | 18.1% | |
| 3 | Jolly N.C. | Green Party | 645 | 15.1% | |
| 4 | Brunsdon A. | Liberal Democrats | 410 | 9.6% |
Brockenhurst · single-seat
Marginal winner 58.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −8.3 pts Valid ballots 5,715
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mans K.D.R. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 3,329 | 58.3% | Elected |
| 2 | Rollin R.E.P. | Liberal Democrats | 989 | 17.3% | |
| 3 | Wilcox K.L. | Green Party | 931 | 16.3% | |
| 4 | Ashman M.C. | Labour Party | 466 | 8.2% |
South Waterside · single-seat
Marginal winner 59.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −9.4 pts Valid ballots 3,737
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McEvoy A.E. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 2,218 | 59.4% | Elected |
| 2 | Clark R.J. | Liberal Democrats | 884 | 23.7% | |
| 3 | Hope J.A. | Labour Party | 420 | 11.2% | |
| 4 | Pemberton J.L. | Green Party | 215 | 5.8% |
Totton North & Netley Marsh · single-seat
Marginal winner 63.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −13.4 pts Valid ballots 4,451
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penman N. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 2,821 | 63.4% | Elected |
| 2 | Rackham C.L. | Liberal Democrats | 905 | 20.3% | |
| 3 | Rochey-Adams J.A. | Labour Party | 410 | 9.2% | |
| 4 | Rowe T.A. | Green Party | 315 | 7.1% |
New Milton · single-seat
Marginal winner 66.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −16.2 pts Valid ballots 5,297
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kendal M.J. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 3,504 | 66.2% | Elected |
| 2 | Fenner J.D. | Green Party | 618 | 11.7% | |
| 3 | Thompson B. | Liberal Democrats | 593 | 11.2% | |
| 4 | Cleeter E.F. | Labour Party | 582 | 11.0% |
New Milton North Milford & Hordle · single-seat
Marginal winner 69.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −19.4 pts Valid ballots 5,938
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carpenter F. | Conservative and Unionist Party | 4,119 | 69.4% | Elected |
| 2 | Main C. | Labour Party | 566 | 9.5% | |
| 3 | Law T. | Green Party | 539 | 9.1% | |
| 4 | Clark M.W. | Liberal Democrats | 537 | 9.0% | |
| 5 | Linney I.T. | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 177 | 3.0% |